A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
